Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0216Z from Region 2157 (S15W63). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep) and expected to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (17 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 626 km/s at
14/0101Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/2127Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 14/1536Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (16 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Sep).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 50/50/20
Class X 15/15/05
Proton 15/15/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 139
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 138/135/130
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 013/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 005/005-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/25