Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
609 km/s at 14/0604Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2238Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/0005Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (16 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 093
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 005/005-011/013-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/25
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 15/35/35
Major-severe storm 05/45/25