Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 315 km/s at 14/0410Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 14/1843Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 215 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 075
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 075/073/073
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10