Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 758 km/s at 14/0736Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/0033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/0316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32632 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (15 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 069
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  026/050
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  024/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  015/020-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/35/30