Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 14/1449Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 13/2227Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at 13/2203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 13/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1931 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 093
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 030/044
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 022/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 012/015-013/018-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/35
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20