Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels. A M1 flare
occurred at 14/1837 UTC from a region around the East limb. A second
event occurred shortly after, with a peak of M2 so far, but remains in
progress at the time of this report. There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk. No flares occurred from the regions
currently on the disk.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 457 km/s at 14/1339Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/1459Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 14/2019Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 120
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 130/140/140
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 010/012-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/20
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/25/25