Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
14/1315Z from Region 1865 (S22W10). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct,
17 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
514 km/s at 14/1930Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 14/0856Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 14/0855Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 274 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 Oct, 17 Oct)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 125
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 012/015-008/010-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20