Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speedreached a peak of 345 km/s at 14/0114Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0319Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1600 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 078
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 079/080/079
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 006/005-008/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/35/35