Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 14/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 070
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 006/005-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/15
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/40/25