Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 681 km/s at 14/0923Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0837Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16060 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 077
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 019/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10