Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 14, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 558 km/s at 14/0259Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2734 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 106
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.