Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to

14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at

14/0748Z from Region 2209 (S15E56). There are currently 6 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate

with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three

(15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

592 km/s at 14/1844Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1400Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/1651Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 Nov, 17 Nov)

and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 Nov). Protons have a

slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Nov,

16 Nov, 17 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

Class M    60/60/60

Class X    20/20/20

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           14 Nov 161

Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov 165/165/170

90 Day Mean        14 Nov 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  011/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  008/010-015/020-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/35/30

Minor Storm           05/25/10

Major-severe storm    01/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/10/15

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    25/55/40