Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
14/0748Z from Region 2209 (S15E56). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
592 km/s at 14/1844Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1400Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/1651Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 Nov, 17 Nov)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Nov,
16 Nov, 17 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 161
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 165/165/170
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-015/020-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/30
Minor Storm 05/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/55/40