Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (15 May, 16 May) and expected to be very low on day three (17 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 14/0833Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/0620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 14/0617Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1485 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 May), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (16 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (17 May).

III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 074
Predicted 15 May-17 May 074/072/072
90 Day Mean 14 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 025/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 018/028-020/032-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 30/35/30
Major-severe storm 15/25/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 65/75/70