Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 May 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 13/2144Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/0046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16341 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 May, 16 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (17 May).

III.  Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 070
Predicted   15 May-17 May 070/071/071
90 Day Mean        14 May 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  006/005-005/005-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/40
Minor Storm           01/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/60