Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 14/1134Z from Region 2543 (S05W69). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 14/0319Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 14/1852Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2578 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 May), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (17 May).

III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 101
Predicted 15 May-17 May 105/100/095
90 Day Mean 14 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 009/008-017/022-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/40
Minor Storm 05/25/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/60/55