Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 14/0731Z from Region 2339 (N11W45). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 802 km/s at 14/0105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4130 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 May), quiet to active levels on day two (16 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (17 May).
III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 145
Predicted 15 May-17 May 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 14 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 025/041
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 010/012-010/010-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May