Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
14/1504Z from Region 2056 (N05W37). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May,
17 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 381 km/s at
14/1144Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/1848Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/1117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 284 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 May) and quiet levels on day three (17 May).

III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 163
Predicted 15 May-17 May 165/165/160
90 Day Mean 14 May 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 007/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 35/25/05