Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 May 2013
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at 14/0111Z from Region 1748 (N11E63). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 432 km/s at 14/1129Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 213 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 May) and quiet levels on day three (17 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 May) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 May). III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May Class M 80/80/80 Class X 50/50/50 Proton 20/30/40 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 May 148 Predicted 15 May-17 May 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 14 May 119 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 010/012-006/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 30/25/10
