Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/0840Z from Region 2965 (N24W03). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 13/2251Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at 14/0643Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -23 nT at 13/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 186 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 115
Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 116/114/116
90 Day Mean 14 Mar 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 030/045
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 011/014-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/25
Minor Storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 65/30/30