Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.Solar wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 14/0900Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/1454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2744 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 078
Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 14 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10