Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 14/1609Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/1644Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0959Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 070
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  010/012-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/25