Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 14/1856Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 14/1424Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 068
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  015/018-012/015-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/40/40