Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 14/1931Z. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 14/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at 14/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 245 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (15 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (16 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 093
Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 14 Mar 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 022/032-021/028-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 25/30/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 65/70/55