Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/0440Z from Region 2297 (S17W25). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at 13/2101Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0348Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (15 Mar, 17 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 116
Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 115/112/110
90 Day Mean 14 Mar 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 012/015-009/010-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
