Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
14/0554Z from Region 1691 (N13W39). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Mar,
16 Mar, 17 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at
14/1849Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1753Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/1439Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 231 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Mar, 16
Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 123
Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 14 Mar 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 012/017-015/016-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/50/25