Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 14/1420Z from Region 3031 (S27W04). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 14/0835Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/0617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 274 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jun), unsettled to active levels on day two (16 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M 45/40/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 146
Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 146/146/144
90 Day Mean 14 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 027/040-014/018-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/20
Minor Storm 30/20/05
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 65/50/30