Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 13/2252Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1637Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 14/1123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levelson days two and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 070
Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 14 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 006/005-008/008-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/30