Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 352 km/s at 14/0930Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/0716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0534Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1606 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 072
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10