Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 14/0236Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/0401Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 074
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  012/015-015/025-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    40/20/15