Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/0059Z from Region 2360 (N15W91). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (15 Jun) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 646 km/s at 14/1944Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 14/1010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/0824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1270 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (17 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M 30/20/15
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 132
Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 125/120/115
90 Day Mean 14 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
