Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0031Z from Region 1769 (S22E49). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jun,
16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 378 km/s at
14/0102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1920Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 998 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Jun, 16 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (17 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 109
Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 14 Jun 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 005/005-005/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/20