Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 14/2009Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 14/1741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 14/1647Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 072
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 072/075/075
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 009/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10