Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 14/0933Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/1956Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4208 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Jul, 16 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 067
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 007/010-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/35/30