Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 July 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
July 14, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on
14 Jul 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagneticfield has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 14/0231Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1516Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 110 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Jul, 16 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (
17 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 072
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/15

SpaceRef staff editor.