Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 July 2016

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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 607 km/s at 14/1955Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/0732Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4181 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul). Quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (17 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 095
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 094/091/091
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 007/015-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/10