Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 14/1210Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (15 Jul, 16 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (17 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 513 km/s at 14/0020Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1424 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 105
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 022/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20