Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1246Z from Region 2109 (S08W86). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jul,
16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
390 km/s at 14/1514Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/2058Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2112Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 109
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 009/012-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/15