Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1700Z from Region 1785 (S11W97). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jul,
16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
439 km/s at 13/2350Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 13/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 14/1903Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4433 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 113
Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 14 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 010/018-009/008-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/20/25