Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 14/0839Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0754Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/1831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 874 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 072
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10