Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 612 km/s at 14/0231Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 13/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 14/0331Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 071
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  009/010-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10