Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 14/0215Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4185 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Jan, 16 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 077
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/20