Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 597 km/s at 14/0303Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2836 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 103
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20