Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/1258Z from Region 2257 (N07W93). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 14/0005Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/1739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/1504Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 40/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 142
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 011/015-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
