Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 January 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/2151Z from Region 1944 (S12W88). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (15 Jan) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
721 km/s at 14/0943Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2254Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2323Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 201 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Jan, 16 Jan) and quiet to
active levels on day three (17 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 25/10/10
Class X 10/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 137
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 135/135/140
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 005/005-006/005-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/25
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/05/35