Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 Feburary 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 13/2133Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2155Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 14/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1877 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 Feb, 17 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 075
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 076/076/075
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  009/012-009/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/40