Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/1731Z from Region 2941 (N23W68). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 14/0903Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0509Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5483 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 20/20/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 107
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15