Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 13/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0434Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Feb, 16 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (17 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 071
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/10