Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 14/0005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1179 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Feb, 16 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 071
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 006/005-006/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/30