Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 February 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 14/1119Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0749Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1271 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 071
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10