Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (15 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day two (16 Feb) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (17 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 14/0912Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/2137Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    10/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 075
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 075/074/073
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  020/028-014/020-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           30/25/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/55/30